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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 14 at the 42

Green Bay Packers 20 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 33 yards to NYG 9, Center-56-J.Coco, downed by GB-25-K.Nixon. NYG-98-D.Davidson was injured during the play. His return is Doubtful.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.31 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 42, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.57 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model