4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
NYG Away

New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
@
GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2022-10-09 · 09:30 Tottenham Stadium, London GB ☀️ Clear Spread 8.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

NYG
26.4%
GB
73.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.226 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • QB edge to GB: Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.213 vs Daniel Jones (NYG) -0.110 EPA/dropback
  • GB defense: -0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • GB offense: +0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • NYG crossing 5 time zone(s)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 19
–
GB 28
Projected margin: GB by 9 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

NYG

Cordale Flott CB Out Calf
Kenny Golladay WR Out Knee
Henry Mondeaux DT Out Ankle
Azeez Ojulari LB Out Calf
Wan'Dale Robinson WR Out Knee
Tyrod Taylor QB Out Concussion
Kadarius Toney WR Out Hamstring
Leonard Williams DT Questionable Knee

GB

Devonte Wyatt DT Questionable Quadricep
Adrian Amos S Questionable Concussion
Tariq Carpenter S Questionable Abdomen

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 27
–
GB 22

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:10 FG GB (11:10) 2-M.Crosby 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. NYG 0 – GB 3
  • Q1 03:22 TD GB (3:22) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 13-A.Lazard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – GB 9
  • Q1 00:14 FG NYG (:14) 9-G.Gano 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 3 – GB 10
  • Q2 07:29 TD GB (7:29) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-M.Lewis for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 3 – GB 16
  • Q2 01:22 TD NYG (1:22) (Shotgun) 82-D.Bellinger right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Double reverse NYG 9 – GB 17
  • Q2 00:04 FG GB (:04) 2-M.Crosby 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. NYG 10 – GB 20
  • Q3 08:02 FG NYG (8:02) 9-G.Gano 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 13 – GB 20
  • Q4 10:14 TD NYG (10:14) 23-G.Brightwell up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 19 – GB 20
  • Q4 06:12 TD NYG (6:12) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 26-S.Barkley. 26-S.Barkley right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 26 – GB 20
  • Q4 00:15 SAF GB (:15) (Punt formation) 6-J.Gillan left end ran ob in End Zone for -3 yards, SAFETY (81-J.Deguara). Penalty on NYG-27-J.Pinnock, Offensive Holding, declined. NYG 27 – GB 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 10 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 83%

    (11:10) 2-M.Crosby 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 4 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (9:35) 6-J.Gillan punts 42 yards to GB 28, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 11 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:24) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to NYG 23, Center-56-J.Coco, downed by GB-20-R.Ford.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 17 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (5:48) 6-J.Gillan punts 58 yards to GB 26, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 37 for 11 yards (20-J.Love). FUMBLES (20-J.Love), touched at GB 40, recovered by GB-58-I.McDuffie at GB 40.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 76%

    (:14) 9-G.Gano 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 11 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 78%

    (:04) 2-M.Crosby 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 92%

    (8:02) 9-G.Gano 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 14 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 49%

    (3:25) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 33 yards to NYG 9, Center-56-J.Coco, downed by GB-25-K.Nixon. NYG-98-D.Davidson was injured during the play. His return is Doubtful.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:52) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to NYG 34, Center-56-J.Coco. 27-J.Pinnock MUFFS catch, touched at NYG 37, ball out of bounds at NYG 40.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 6 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (1:05) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 13-A.Lazard (29-X.McKinney).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 14 at the 97 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +2.72 EP
    p(convert) 29%

    (:15) (Punt formation) 6-J.Gillan left end ran ob in End Zone for -3 yards, SAFETY (81-J.Deguara). Penalty on NYG-27-J.Pinnock, Offensive Holding, declined.