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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 27

Green Bay Packers 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:10) 2-M.Crosby 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.14 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 27, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 37, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model