4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 6

Green Bay Packers 20 – New York Giants 27

What Actually Happened

(1:05) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 13-A.Lazard (29-X.McKinney).

The Three Options

GO +3.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +4.64 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 6, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +2.29 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model