Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 14 at the 97

New York Giants 27 – Green Bay Packers 20

What Actually Happened

(:15) (Punt formation) 6-J.Gillan left end ran ob in End Zone for -3 yards, SAFETY (81-J.Deguara). Penalty on NYG-27-J.Pinnock, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -3.37 EP

What Happened

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth -0.02 EP
71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 97, worth -4.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +2.72 EP