Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 73

Green Bay Packers 3 – New York Giants 0

(7:24) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to NYG 23, Center-56-J.Coco, downed by GB-20-R.Ford.

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.33 EP
66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 73, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model