Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 17 at the 84

New York Giants 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 6-J.Gillan punts 58 yards to GB 26, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 37 for 11 yards (20-J.Love). FUMBLES (20-J.Love), touched at GB 40, recovered by GB-58-I.McDuffie at GB 40.

The Three Options

GO -3.51 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.02 EP
75% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 84, worth -5.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model