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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 76

Seattle Seahawks 10 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(8:54) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to NO 32, Center-46-C.Tinker. 1-M.Callaway to NO 36 for 4 yards (44-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.68 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 76, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 34, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model