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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
Sunday 2022-10-09 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

SEA
58.0%
NO
42.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: +0.119 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NO offense: -0.130 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to SEA: Andy Dalton (NO) -0.085 vs Geno Smith (SEA) +0.129 EPA/dropback
  • NO defense: -0.124 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • SEA defense: +0.121 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

SEA 23
–
NO 22
Projected margin: SEA by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

SEA

Dareke Young WR Out Quadricep
Marquise Goodwin WR Questionable Knee
Justin Coleman CB Questionable Calf
Kenneth Walker RB Questionable Shoulder

NO

Michael Thomas WR Out Foot
Calvin Throckmorton G Out Hip
Payton Turner DE Out Chest
P.J. Williams CB Out Quadricep
Jameis Winston QB Doubtful Back
Jarvis Landry WR Questionable Ankle
Andrus Peat G Questionable Concussion
Alvin Kamara RB Questionable Rib
Marcus Maye S Questionable Rib

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 32
–
NO 39

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 26 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:39 FG NO (9:39) 3-W.Lutz 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. SEA 0 – NO 3
  • Q1 06:53 TD SEA (6:53) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 25, YAC 25 SEA 6 – NO 3
  • Q1 01:18 FG SEA (1:18) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 10 – NO 3
  • Q2 10:59 TD NO (10:59) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 10 – NO 9
  • Q2 03:39 TD NO (3:39) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 10 – NO 16
  • Q2 01:46 FG SEA (1:46) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 13 – NO 17
  • Q2 00:14 TD SEA (:14) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-M.Davenport]. Pass 35, YAC 0 SEA 19 – NO 17
  • Q3 12:07 TD NO (12:07) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep right to 12-C.Olave (8-C.Bryant). New Orleans challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO-12-C.Olave was injured during the play. He is Out. SEA 19 – NO 23
  • Q3 00:41 TD NO (:41) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass deep middle to 82-A.Trautman for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 19 – NO 30
  • Q4 14:16 TD SEA (14:16) (No Huddle) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 25 – NO 31
  • Q4 07:04 TD SEA (7:04) (No Huddle) 9-K.Walker left guard for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 31 – NO 31
  • Q4 05:33 TD NO (5:33) (Shotgun) 66-L.Kidd and 67-L.Young reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill left tackle for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 32 – NO 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 5 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 67%

    (9:39) 3-W.Lutz 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 9 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:17) 4-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to SEA 26, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 6 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 64%

    (1:18) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:54) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to NO 32, Center-46-C.Tinker. 1-M.Callaway to NO 36 for 4 yards (44-N.Bellore).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:52) 4-B.Gillikin punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:28) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson right end to SEA 13 for -8 yards (96-C.Granderson, 24-D.Washington).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

    (1:46) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 14 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:17) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to NO 11, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 1-M.Callaway. PENALTY on SEA-46-C.Tinker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 11.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (7:29) 4-B.Gillikin punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (6:07) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to NO 18, Center-46-C.Tinker. 1-M.Callaway pushed ob at NO 39 for 21 yards (35-J.Blount). NO-96-C.Granderson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 42%

    (7:48) 4-B.Gillikin punts 25 yards to SEA 22, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 16 at the 81 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:28) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to NO 32, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 1-M.Callaway.