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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 79

Seattle Seahawks 10 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(4:28) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson right end to SEA 13 for -8 yards (96-C.Granderson, 24-D.Washington).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.30 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 79, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 36, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.50 EP