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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 13

Seattle Seahawks 10 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.62 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 13, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 23, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model