4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 37

New Orleans Saints 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 3-W.Lutz 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.02 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 37, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 46, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model