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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 81

Seattle Seahawks 32 – New Orleans Saints 39

What Actually Happened

(3:28) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to NO 32, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 1-M.Callaway.

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 81, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 38, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model