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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 70

New Orleans Saints 3 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(4:17) 4-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to SEA 26, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.09 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 70, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 28, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model