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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 38

Seattle Seahawks 7 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.72 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 38, worth -2.07 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
What Happened
  • 64% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model