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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 77

Tennessee Titans 7 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 56 yards to WAS 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 15-D.Milne to WAS 25 for 4 yards (86-K.Rader).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 77, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model