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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
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Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2022-10-09 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

TEN
54.2%
WAS
45.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Carson Wentz (WAS): -0.087 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • WAS defense: +0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • TEN offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TEN 23
–
WAS 21
Projected margin: TEN by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

TEN

Olasunkanmi Adeniyi LB Out Neck
Treylon Burks WR Out Toe
Zach Cunningham LB Out Elbow
Bud Dupree LB Out Hip
Amani Hooker S Out Concussion
Joseph Jones LB Out Knee
Caleb Farley CB Questionable Knee
Lonnie Johnson CB Questionable Illness
Nate Davis G Questionable Knee

WAS

Percy Butler S Out Quadricep
Samuel Cosmi T Out Finger
Jahan Dotson WR Out Hamstring
Milo Eifler LB Out Hamstring
Logan Thomas TE Questionable Calf
David Mayo LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 21
–
WAS 17

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:04 TD TEN (4:04) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 40-D.Hilliard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Toohill]. TEN 6 – WAS 0
  • Q1 00:31 FG WAS (:31) 6-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. TEN 7 – WAS 3
  • Q2 14:06 TD WAS (14:06) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 2-D.Brown for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – WAS 9
  • Q2 00:20 TD TEN (:20) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – WAS 10
  • Q3 04:41 TD WAS (4:41) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 2-D.Brown for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 14 – WAS 16
  • Q3 01:06 TD TEN (1:06) (No Huddle) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 20 – WAS 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:33) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 38 yards to WAS 33, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-25-H.Haskins.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 4 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (12:03) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to TEN 20, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-2-D.Brown.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 7 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (8:40) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 54 yards to WAS 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 15-D.Milne to WAS 19 for 9 yards (86-K.Rader).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 11 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:39) 5-T.Way punts 34 yards to TEN 48, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-41-J.Williams.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 10 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 76%

    (:31) 6-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (14:17) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 56 yards to WAS 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 15-D.Milne to WAS 25 for 4 yards (86-K.Rader).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 15 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (7:26) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to TEN 19, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-22-D.Forrest.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 4 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 47%

    (12:41) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to TEN 4, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, out of bounds.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 10 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:12) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 50 yards to WAS 46, Center-46-M.Cox. 15-D.Milne to TEN 46 for 8 yards (8-C.Hollister; 85-C.Okonkwo).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 4 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 57%

    (9:32) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short middle to 10-C.Samuel (99-R.Weaver).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 16 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (8:01) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 53 yards to WAS 12, Center-46-M.Cox. 15-D.Milne to WAS 20 for 8 yards (86-K.Rader).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 52%

    (12:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard to WAS 38 for 4 yards (95-C.Toohill).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (7:16) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to TEN 25, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 2-R.Woods to TEN 25 for no gain (34-C.Holmes).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (4:58) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 59 yards to WAS 11, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-20-L.Johnson.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 80 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (3:55) 8-B.Robinson right guard to WAS 22 for 2 yards (51-D.Long; 53-D.Cole).