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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 38 yards to WAS 33, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-25-H.Haskins.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model