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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 44

Washington Commanders 10 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to TEN 4, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.45 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP