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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 16 at the 65

Tennessee Titans 14 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(8:01) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 53 yards to WAS 12, Center-46-M.Cox. 15-D.Milne to WAS 20 for 8 yards (86-K.Rader).

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.73 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 65, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 23, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model