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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 70

Washington Commanders 17 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to TEN 25, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 2-R.Woods to TEN 25 for no gain (34-C.Holmes).

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.73 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 70, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 28, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model