Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 82

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Seattle Seahawks 3

(10:57) 14-A.Lee punts 42 yards to SEA 40, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.53 EP
69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 82, worth -4.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model