ARI @ SEA — 4th & Data

← Home

Away

Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury

Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll

Sunday 2022-10-16 · 16:05 Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

ARI

35.4%

SEA

64.6%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

SEA offense: +0.149 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
SEA defense: +0.133 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
QB edge to SEA: Geno Smith (SEA) +0.144 vs Kyler Murray (ARI) -0.070 EPA/dropback
ARI defense: +0.100 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 22

–

SEA 27

Projected margin: SEA by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

ARI

James Conner RB Out Ribs

Trayvon Mullen CB Out Hamstring

Matt Prater K Out right Hip

Darrel Williams RB Out Knee

Max Garcia G Questionable Toe

Rodney Hudson C Questionable Knee

Rashard Lawrence DT Questionable Hand

Byron Murphy CB Questionable Groin

SEA

Penny Hart WR Out Hamstring

Gabe Jackson G Doubtful Knee

Al Woods DT Doubtful Knee

Artie Burns CB Questionable Groin

D'Wayne Eskridge WR Questionable Illness

Marquise Goodwin WR Questionable Knee

Shelby Harris DE Questionable Hip

Joey Blount S Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 9

–

SEA 19

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 10:24 FG ARI (10:24) 15-M.Ammendola 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 3 – SEA 0
Q1 06:46 FG SEA (6:46) 5-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. ARI 3 – SEA 3
Q2 06:09 FG SEA (6:09) 5-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. ARI 3 – SEA 6
Q2 00:04 FG SEA (:04) 5-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. ARI 3 – SEA 9
Q3 04:15 FG SEA (4:15) 5-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. ARI 3 – SEA 12
Q3 00:59 TD ARI (:59) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson up the middle to SEA -2 for -12 yards (47-E.Turner). FUMBLES (47-E.Turner), RECOVERED by ARI-31-C.Banjo at SEA -4. TOUCHDOWN. ARI 9 – SEA 12
Q4 13:31 TD SEA (13:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 9 – SEA 18

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 ARI 4th & 5 at the 5

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

(10:24) 15-M.Ammendola 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.
Q1 SEA 4th & 12 at the 21

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 91%

(6:46) 5-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 20

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45% p(FG) 92%

(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 4-R.Moore.
Q2 SEA 4th & 3 at the 73

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP

p(convert) 60%

(12:57) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to ARI 24, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 83-G.Dortch.
Q2 ARI 4th & 16 at the 82

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(10:57) 14-A.Lee punts 42 yards to SEA 40, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.
Q2 SEA 4th & 4 at the 9

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 97%

(6:09) 5-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q2 ARI 4th & 14 at the 55

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(3:21) 14-A.Lee punts 37 yards to SEA 18, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.
Q2 SEA 4th & 16 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(1:29) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to ARI 31, Center-46-C.Tinker. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 36 for 5 yards (44-N.Bellore).
Q2 ARI 4th & 13 at the 67

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(1:01) 14-A.Lee punts 35 yards to SEA 32, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.
Q3 ARI 4th & 2 at the 27

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 58% p(FG) 84%

(9:19) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep right to 18-A.Green.
Q3 SEA 4th & 13 at the 14

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

(4:15) 5-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q3 SEA 4th & 19 at the 90

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.81 EP

p(convert) 31%

(:59) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson up the middle to SEA -2 for -12 yards (47-E.Turner). FUMBLES (47-E.Turner), RECOVERED by ARI-31-C.Banjo at SEA -4. TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 23

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 57% p(FG) 89%

(10:12) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at SEA 35 for -12 yards (77-Q.Jefferson).
Q4 ARI 4th & 19 at the 92

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(7:53) 14-A.Lee punts 48 yards to SEA 44, Center-46-A.Brewer. 31-D.Dallas to ARI 48 for 8 yards (33-A.Hamilton).
Q4 SEA 4th & 8 at the 46

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 42%

(6:52) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback. PENALTY on ARI-7-B.Murphy, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 13 yards, enforced at ARI 20.
Q4 ARI 4th & 3 at the 86

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 59%

(6:10) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to ARI 20 for 6 yards (27-T.Woolen).
Q4 ARI 4th & 11 at the 56 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(3:59) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left intended for 2-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 27-T.Woolen at SEA 25. 27-T.Woolen to SEA 25 for no gain (2-M.Brown). ARI-2-M.Brown was injured during the play.