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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 14

Seattle Seahawks 9 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 5-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.38 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 14, worth +0.29 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model