4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 23

Arizona Cardinals 9 – Seattle Seahawks 19

What Actually Happened

(10:12) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at SEA 35 for -12 yards (77-Q.Jefferson).

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.15 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 23, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 33, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model