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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 19 at the 92

Arizona Cardinals 9 – Seattle Seahawks 19

What Actually Happened

(7:53) 14-A.Lee punts 48 yards to SEA 44, Center-46-A.Brewer. 31-D.Dallas to ARI 48 for 8 yards (33-A.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO -3.51 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.82 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 92, worth -5.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 50, worth -2.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model