4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 86

Arizona Cardinals 9 – Seattle Seahawks 19

What Actually Happened

(6:10) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to ARI 20 for 6 yards (27-T.Woolen).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.50 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 86, worth -4.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -1.84 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 44, worth -1.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model