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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 21

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(6:46) 5-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.48 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 31, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model