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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 20

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 4-R.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.66 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 20, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model