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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 66

Carolina Panthers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(2:41) 10-J.Hekker punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.90 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 66, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 24, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP