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Carolina Panthers

HC Steve Wilks
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LA Home

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2022-10-16 · 16:05 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 10.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

CAR
27.5%
LA
72.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.189 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Phillip Walker (CAR): -0.199 EPA/dropback in prior starts (CAR starting Phillip Walker in place of Baker Mayfield)
  • LA offense: -0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CAR 19
–
LA 26
Projected margin: LA by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

CAR

Laviska Shenault WR Out Hamstring
Stantley Thomas-Oliver CB Out Thigh
Baker Mayfield QB Doubtful Ankle
Robbie Chosen WR Questionable Illness
Cameron Erving T Questionable Groin
Jaycee Horn CB Questionable Ribs
Donte Jackson CB Questionable Ankle
C.J. Henderson CB Questionable Knee
Frankie Luvu LB Questionable Shoulder

LA

Cam Akers RB Out Not injury related - personal matter
Brian Allen C Out Knee
Aaron Donald DT Questionable Foot
Cobie Durant CB Questionable Hamstring
Tyler Higbee TE Questionable Ankle
Cooper Kupp WR Questionable Foot
John Wolford QB Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 10
–
LA 24

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:42 FG CAR (8:42) 4-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 3 – LA 0
  • Q2 03:39 TD LA (3:39) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 1-Al.Robinson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 3 – LA 6
  • Q2 02:08 TD CAR (2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at LA 30. 26-D.Jackson for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 9 – LA 7
  • Q3 04:40 FG LA (4:40) 8-M.Gay 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon. CAR 10 – LA 10
  • Q3 00:16 TD LA (:16) 18-B.Skowronek right end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 10 – LA 16
  • Q4 08:20 TD LA (8:20) 27-D.Henderson right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 10 – LA 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 12 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 88%

    (8:42) 4-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 16 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (5:07) 11-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to CAR 11, Center-42-M.Orzech. 12-S.Smith to CAR 13 for 2 yards (36-G.Haley).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 8 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 40%

    (:21) 10-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to LA 7, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (13:48) 11-R.Dixon punts 60 yards to CAR 24, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:41) 10-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to LA 27, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (2:41) 10-J.Hekker punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (:23) 11-R.Dixon punts 32 yards to CAR 35, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:38) 11-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to CAR 26, Center-42-M.Orzech. 12-S.Smith to CAR 37 for 11 yards (56-C.Rozeboom; 35-J.Hummel).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:30) 10-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to LA 19, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-B.Powell. PENALTY on LA-5-J.Ramsey, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at LA 19.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (4:40) 8-M.Gay 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (3:09) 10-J.Hekker punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:43) 10-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to LA 24, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-B.Powell to LA 39 for 15 yards (44-J.Jansen).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 16 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (6:11) 10-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to LA 14, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 4 at the 80 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (4:28) 11-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to CAR 34, Center-42-M.Orzech. 12-S.Smith to CAR 33 for -1 yards (21-R.Yeast).