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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 67

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(:23) 11-R.Dixon punts 32 yards to CAR 35, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.69 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 67, worth -2.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model