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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 3

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 8-M.Gay 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +3.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.20 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.46 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP