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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 10 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 10-J.Hekker punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.46 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 68, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 26, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model