Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 80

Los Angeles Rams 24 – Carolina Panthers 10

(4:28) 11-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to CAR 34, Center-42-M.Orzech. 12-S.Smith to CAR 33 for -1 yards (21-R.Yeast).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.63 EP
49% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model