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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 24

Carolina Panthers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 4-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.94 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 34, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model