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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 84

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(13:48) 11-R.Dixon punts 60 yards to CAR 24, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.89 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 42, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP