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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 72

Carolina Panthers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 10-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to LA 27, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.46 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 72, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 30, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model