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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 70

Miami Dolphins 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(13:58) 4-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to MIN 16, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 16 for no gain (27-K.Crossen).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.28 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 70, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 28, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model