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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
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Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Sunday 2022-10-16 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

MIN
41.2%
MIA
58.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: +0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • MIN defense: +0.029 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 21
–
MIA 24
Projected margin: MIA by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

MIN

D.J. Wonnum DE Questionable Illness
Alexander Mattison RB Questionable Shoulder

MIA

Tua Tagovailoa QB Out Concussion
Kader Kohou CB Doubtful Abdomen
Terron Armstead T Questionable Toe
Teddy Bridgewater QB Questionable Concussion
Elijah Campbell CB Questionable Foot
Raheem Mostert RB Questionable Knee
Durham Smythe TE Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 24
–
MIA 16

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 06:10 FG MIA (6:10) 7-J.Sanders 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. MIN 0 – MIA 3
  • Q2 02:37 TD MIN (2:37) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 84-I.Smith for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – MIA 3
  • Q2 00:02 FG MIN (:02) 1-G.Joseph 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. MIN 10 – MIA 3
  • Q4 14:21 TD MIN (14:21) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 19-A.Thielen for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 16 – MIA 3
  • Q4 10:08 TD MIA (10:08) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 16 – MIA 9
  • Q4 03:25 TD MIN (3:25) 4-D.Cook left tackle for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 22 – MIA 10
  • Q4 01:31 TD MIA (1:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 24 – MIA 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (13:40) 14-R.Wright punts 42 yards to MIA 25, Center-42-A.DePaola. 8-J.Holland MUFFS catch, touched at MIA 27, recovered by MIA-15-J.Phillips at MIA 25.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 17 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 46%

    (8:07) 4-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to MIN 6, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-20-J.Bethel.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 9 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:33) 14-R.Wright punts 73 yards to MIA 20, Center-42-A.DePaola. 10-T.Hill to MIA 18 for -2 yards (44-J.Metellus).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (14:55) 14-R.Wright punts 49 yards to MIA 28, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 8 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:58) 4-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to MIN 16, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 16 for no gain (27-K.Crossen).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:47) 14-R.Wright punts 43 yards to MIA 38, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 26
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 83%

    (6:10) 7-J.Sanders 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 68%

    (1:45) 7-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 4 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 22%

    (:35) 14-R.Wright punts 41 yards to MIA 11, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (13:31) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 42-C.Fejedelem. 42-C.Fejedelem right end pushed ob at MIA 34 for no gain (44-J.Metellus).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 11 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:31) 4-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to MIN 41, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:57) 14-R.Wright punts 42 yards to MIA 12, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-44-J.Metellus.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 10 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:29) 4-T.Morstead punts 62 yards to MIN 26, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 5-J.Reagor ran ob at MIA 49 for 25 yards (4-T.Morstead).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 17 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:53) 14-R.Wright punts 42 yards to MIA 14, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (8:34) 14-R.Wright punts 50 yards to MIA 16, Center-42-A.DePaola. 8-J.Holland pushed ob at MIA 20 for 4 yards (26-K.Nwangwu).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 22%

    (6:08) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 10-T.Hill to MIN 38 for 14 yards (33-B.Asamoah).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 41 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 49%

    (2:44) 14-R.Wright punts 24 yards to MIA 17, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.