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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 81

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 14-R.Wright punts 43 yards to MIA 38, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.96 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 81, worth -4.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 38, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model