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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 52

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(:35) 14-R.Wright punts 41 yards to MIA 11, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.87 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 52, worth -1.76 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 15, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model