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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 17 at the 56

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(5:53) 14-R.Wright punts 42 yards to MIA 14, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.34 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 56, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 17, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model