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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 66

Minnesota Vikings 16 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 14-R.Wright punts 50 yards to MIA 16, Center-42-A.DePaola. 8-J.Holland pushed ob at MIA 20 for 4 yards (26-K.Nwangwu).

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.57 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 66, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 24, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP