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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 52

Miami Dolphins 10 – Minnesota Vikings 16

What Actually Happened

(6:08) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 10-T.Hill to MIN 38 for 14 yards (33-B.Asamoah).

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.40 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 52, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model