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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 17 at the 42

Miami Dolphins 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(8:07) 4-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to MIN 6, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-20-J.Bethel.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.59 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 42, worth -1.83 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model