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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 46

Green Bay Packers 0 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(2:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Doubs.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.29 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 13, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model