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NYJ Away

New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
@
GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2022-10-16 · 13:00 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

NYJ
29.8%
GB
70.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to GB: Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.162 vs Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.103 EPA/dropback
  • NYJ offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • GB defense: -0.042 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • GB offense: +0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 18
–
GB 25
Projected margin: GB by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

NYJ

Jermaine Johnson DE Out Ankle
Duane Brown T Questionable Shoulder

GB

Tipa Galeai LB Out Hamstring
Christian Watson WR Out Hamstring
Rashan Gary LB Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 27
–
GB 10

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 05:50 FG NYJ (5:50) 6-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. NYJ 3 – GB 0
  • Q2 00:03 FG GB (:03) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. NYJ 3 – GB 3
  • Q3 08:19 TD NYJ (8:19) 10-B.Berrios left end for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 9 – GB 3
  • Q3 05:52 TD NYJ (5:52) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 72-M.Clemons, Center-56-J.Coco, RECOVERED by NYJ-39-W.Parks at GB 20. 39-W.Parks for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 16 – GB 3
  • Q3 02:40 TD GB (2:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 13-A.Lazard for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NYJ-97-N.Shepherd, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. NYJ 17 – GB 9
  • Q4 15:00 TD NYJ (15:00) 20-Br.Hall up the middle for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 23 – GB 10
  • Q4 02:37 FG NYJ (2:37) 6-G.Zuerlein 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. NYJ 27 – GB 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:15) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 60 yards to NYJ 14, Center-56-J.Coco. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 33 for 19 yards (6-D.Leavitt, 56-J.Coco). PENALTY on NYJ-21-A.Davis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 33.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (12:37) 7-B.Mann punts 50 yards to GB 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 21 for 3 yards (34-J.Hardee).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 13 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:23) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 62 yards to NYJ 20, Center-56-J.Coco. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 24 for 4 yards (25-K.Nixon).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (7:59) 7-B.Mann punts 43 yards to GB 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 21 for 7 yards (21-A.Davis).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (4:47) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to NYJ 15, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:32) 7-B.Mann punts 61 yards to GB 27, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 8-Am.Rodgers pushed ob at GB 27 for no gain (34-J.Hardee).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 79%

    (15:00) 2-M.Crosby 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (95-Q.Williams), Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (12:50) 7-B.Mann punts 6 yards to NYJ 36, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-72-M.Clemons.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 18 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 42%

    (11:06) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 36 yards to NYJ 8, Center-56-J.Coco, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (10:09) 7-B.Mann punts 58 yards to GB 26, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 34 for 8 yards (26-B.Echols). PENALTY on GB-45-E.Wilson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 34.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 95%

    (5:50) 6-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 3 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 36%

    (2:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Doubs.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 66%

    (:36) 6-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:05) 7-B.Mann punts 50 yards to GB 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 28 for 4 yards (44-J.Sherwood; 36-M.Harris).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (10:31) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to NYJ 15, Center-56-J.Coco. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 26 for 11 yards (58-I.McDuffie).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 20 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (5:52) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 72-M.Clemons, Center-56-J.Coco, RECOVERED by NYJ-39-W.Parks at GB 20. 39-W.Parks for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (13:31) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right guard to GB 37 for 3 yards (29-L.Joyner).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 14 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 60%

    (9:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle to 85-R.Tonyan (9-K.Alexander).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 5 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (2:37) 6-G.Zuerlein 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 67 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 13-A.Lazard.