Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 74

New York Jets 3 – Green Bay Packers 3

(14:05) 7-B.Mann punts 50 yards to GB 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 28 for 4 yards (44-J.Sherwood; 36-M.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model