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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 61

Green Bay Packers 3 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(10:31) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to NYJ 15, Center-56-J.Coco. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 26 for 11 yards (58-I.McDuffie).

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.84 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 61, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 20, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model